Russian Foreign Minister Visits New Delhi Amidst A Flurry Of Diplomatic Seduction
Russia likely to phase out the UK’s India attention as over-riding energy and regional considerations outgun London & Washington
The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, fresh from meeting China’s FM Wang Yi and the collective Ministers of Afghanistan neighbours, in discussions held near Shanghai yesterday, has arrived in India for two days to engage in talks with India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.
India is finding itself at the centre of a tug-of-war between East and West over the Ukraine issue and other geopolitical matters rapidly coming closer to home. Jaishankar met with China’s Wang Yi just last week, and has vested interests in solutions – and opportunities – in Afghanistan. He also has a balancing act to perform – the UK’s Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss is also meeting with him and will be looking to negate Wang and Lavrov’s influence. That might prove difficult – the UK is not a major growth market for India, and a recently signed trade agreement appears to be based more on objectives than real tariff actions, although trade between the UK and India is worth around £23 billion a year.
Jaishankar has a stronger trade and strategic partner with Russia, and although contemporary trade is lower at £8 billion, the two countries have agreed to boost that by £5 billion a year, to reach £30 billion by 2025.
Energy
Lavrov can also offer benefits that London cannot – Russia is closely involved with cooperation with Indian energy supplies, as well as being a major supplier – at more competitive rates – in the weapons sector. In terms of energy, India’s needs will grow by between 35-50% in the period to 2030, and it needs to secure supplies. Russia has the answer and is negotiating Indian investments of between US$2-3 billion in Russian oil and gas exploration and production projects with the Russian government, with Moscow offering several oil and gas fields to India’s natural resources exploration firm ONGC Videsh and to any potential consortium it may form for the project.
The countries are also in talks over India’s investment in oil and gas exploration projects in the Arctic, including the development of the Vostok Oil project. The project’s annual crude production could be up to 100 million tons, according to preliminary estimates. Three Russian Far Eastern regions, namely Yakutia, Sakhalin Oblast and Amur Oblast, have so far shown interest in investment by India in their oil and gas sectors, with negotiations continuing. India and Russia have already commenced LNG transport between them via the maritime Vladivostok-Chennai route.
Of immediate discussion will be India’s purchasing of discounted Russian Oil, and the facilitating the payment for this in rubles.
The two countries have other trade issues to discuss, not least the proposed Free Trade Agreement between India and the Eurasian Economic Union, which would boost bilateral trade close to and probably above current volumes with the UK.
Weapons
In terms of the weapons industry, Russia is still one of India’s largest arms suppliers. Around 23% of Russian arms exports between 2016-2020 went to India, according to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Foreign Secretary Shringla has stated that Russia has started delivering its long-range S-400 surface-to-air missile defense systems to India, based on a deal the two countries signed in 2018. “Supplies have begun and will continue to happen,” he said, adding, “It is important to note that, whether it is us or Russia, we conduct an independent foreign policy, and I don’t think we need to look at our relationship in the light of any other relationship that is there.”
Afghanistan
Then there is the larger regional concern of Afghanistan. Violence could easily spill over into India and the Modi Government has been quick to clamp down on the Muslim population, leading to accusations of anti-Islamic views within his administration. Again, Russia and China both trump the UK in this regard – British troops were part of the NATO presence so unceremoniously ejected from Afghanistan last year. Russia, and China are however lead members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, (SCO) which provides regional security in the Central Asian region and facilitates trade and investment. India joined the SCO as a full member along with Pakistan in 2017. Lavrov will brief Jaishankar on the outcomes of yesterdays Ministerial meeting of Afghanistan’s neighbours, which Iran, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and China all attended. Conclusions from those discussions will hinge on whether the group feels the Taliban have achieved some level of security, in which further diplomatic, financing and development programmes could kick in. If however, the view is that the Taliban are unstable, meaning Afghanistan could once again plunge back into civil war, an immediate response in multilateral, regional security will be needed to stop it.
Summary
Given these considerations, Russia’s Finance Minister is more likely to be coming away from New Delhi with accomplishments. He will also be seeking to build on China’s apparent softening towards India and looking to encourage better relations between the two.
The UK will be acting on behalf of the United States in attempting to persuade India not to buy Russian arms, but this is more complicated, India’s military is already Russian weapon familiar, even if British – or American – products could do just as good – if not better – job. Given the security situation concerning Afghanistan, and the US and UK’s involvement in that debacle, with India certainly going to have to pick up part of the new regional security expenses, attempts by Washington to sanction India would be met with fierce outrage and likely make an already strained relationship worse.
The outcome of an emerging India-Russia, China-Pakistan regional quartet should not be underestimated.
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